Population
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"Population." Geography, Population, Q-files Encyclopedia, 20 Jul. 2023.
https://www.q-files.com/geography/population/population.
Accessed 19 Mar. 2024.
Population 2023. Geography, Population. Retrieved 19 March 2024, from
https://www.q-files.com/geography/population/population
Geography, Population, s.v. "Population," accessed March 19, 2024.
https://www.q-files.com/geography/population/population
Population
The world’s population underwent a massive increase during the 20th century. In 1900 it stood at 1.6 billion. By the end of the century, it topped 6 billion. According to the United Nations, the world's population passed 8 billion people on 15th November 2022. Based on current trends (which show population growth gradually slowing), the UN estimates the population could grow to about 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by the end of the century.
Updated 20th July 2023
Population growth
Rapid population growth began in about 1800 with the onset of the Industrial Revolution. Then most of the increase was in Europe and North America as better health care and food resources became available. In 1900 most of the world’s largest cities were in these continents.
In the 20th century, about 97% of the growth took place in the developing world: the countries of Africa, Asia and Central and South America. Here, people have traditionally had a lot of children because they fear that many will not survive to be adults. The average fertility rate (the average number of children that are born per woman of child-bearing age) in Niger, for example, is 6.8 babies per woman, compared to 0.9 in South Korea, a developed nation.
Better health care, even in poorer countries, means that today fewer children die of hunger or disease, and fewer women die in childbirth. As a result, the populations of countries in the developing world now have large proportions of young people. Half of India’s population, for example, is under 25 years old. These young people are having children of their own, so the fertility rate remains high.
In contrast, regions like Europe have ageing populations because of low birth rates and high life expectancy. More than 20% of Italy's population, for example, is over 65. The result is falling populations across the continent, particularly in eastern Europe and the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union.
Countries like China (since 2023, the second most populous country in the world) have taken steps to arrest the growth of their massive population. In 1979, the government introduced a policy of one child per family. While successful in reducing the birth rate, the policy had social effects. A traditional cultural preference for sons led to unwanted infant girls being abandoned; some died while others were adopted abroad. A generation of "missing women" was created.
From 2015, a new law allowing Chinese couples to have two children came into effect. The birth rate remained lower than before the one-child policy was introduced, however. Fears of an ageing population and a smaller younger generation—meaning the lack of a workforce to drive the economy—led to all restrictions on family size being removed in 2021.
Future trends
Global population growth is mostly not due to increased number of births but because people are living much longer—in both the developed and developing world. While it varies from country to country, average life expectancy is now 72 years. The rate of increase has now slowed from a peak in 1981 when it was 61 years.
The United Nations predicts that there will never again be as many children born in a year as there were in 1990. Births in 2022 were 8.5 million fewer than in 1990, despite the fact there are many more women of child-bearing age alive today. The slowdown is due to an increasing demand for birth control across the world, including developing countries. The average woman in, for example, Tanzania in 2020 was a mother of four children. This is 9% less than the 2010 figure. UN projections are for it to fall to an average of 2.3 children by 2080.
In Europe, births have been falling for decades. Between 1946 and 1961, more than 12 million babies were born every year. By 2020, the number had dropped to fewer than 7 million a year. The average size of family is now below two in many European countries, meaning that—particularly in eastern Europe—populations are falling year on year. Populations are stable or rising only in those European countries that have significant levels of immigration (see below).
The UN currently projects the global population to reach 9 billion in 2038 and 10 billion in 2059. Some forecasters think this latter total may never be reached. Some predict that the global population will, for the first time in recent history, start to fall overall in 2086.
Migration
Migration is the movement of individuals, families and larger groups from one region to another in order to settle. The term migration usually refers to movement between one country and another, but sometimes it is used to mean movement within countries (such as from the countryside to cities). People who enter a new territory are called immigrants, while on leaving their home territory they are called emigrants. In 2013, it is estimated that 220 million people migrated from one country to another.
Today the majority of migration is for economic reasons. Economic migrations are called voluntary migrations because they are made by choice, in search of better job opportunities or higher wages. Reasons for involuntary migrations (also known as forced migrations) include natural and manmade disasters, war and political, religious or racial persecution. Forced migrants are often called refugees.
Population density
The world’s population is not evenly spread: some regions, including Europe, eastern North America, India, China and Japan have a much higher density of people. Here there are many more industrial cities, or the land is intensively farmed.
The world's most populous countries (2023)
1 India 1,425,775,850
2 China 1,411,750,000
3 USA 335,097,492
4 Indonesia 275,773,800
5 Pakistan 229,488,994
6 Nigeria 216,746,934
7 Brazil 216,417,750
8 Bangladesh 168,220,000
9 Russia 147,190,000
10 Mexico 128,271,248
Consultant: Lloyd Jenkins